Modeling the environmental impacts of urban land use and land cover change—a study in Merseyside, UK

There is a lack of information on the environmental effects of urban change and the dynamics of greenspace. Such information is essential for a better understanding of the sustainability of urban development processes, both planned and unplanned. We therefore investigated the changes in land use and land cover of 11 residential areas in Merseyside, UK, using aerial photographs taken in 1975 and 2000. We then modeled how these changes would alter three important environmental parameters: surface temperature, runoff of rainfall, and greenspace diversity. These changes were then related to the socio-economic status of the areas, as measured by an index of multiple deprivation. The comparisons revealed a loss of greenspace in all 11 case study sites Overall, the more affluent, low density areas lost more greenspace, especially of tree cover. A major cause was infill development whereby gardens were built over. However, greenspace was also lost in already densely built-up, deprived areas due to the reuse of derelict land. As a consequence, the models used in this study predicted negative environmental impacts for all areas. The results emphasize the need to critically review concepts such as urban densification and give more weight to the preservation and management of urban greenspaces. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.